Options Trading Analysis [14 April 2025]: NIFTY, BANK NIFTY Trade Setups
Table of Contents
Welcome to Week 1 of my Options Selling Paper Trading Series. Every Sunday, I analyze the market deeply and share my trade setups for the coming week. This series is for anyone who wants to learn professional option selling and track live market behavior step-by-step. All trades are simulated using Zerodha Kite and Neostox.
Let’s get started with this week’s detailed market analysis and strategy!
Market Outlook Analysis
1.1 Nifty Weekly Trend – Long-Term Outlook
- Time Frame: 1 Week (1W)
- Indicators Used: 20 EMA
- Nifty 50:
- The current Nifty 50 Price is 22828.55 and 20 EMA is 23281.80 showing clearly that the Price is below 20 EMA.
- I can see the chart creating Lower Highs and Lower Lows.
- My View: Down Trend
1.2 Daily Trend – Medium-Term Outlook
- Time Frame: 1 Day (1D)
- Indicators Used: 20 EMA, RSI (14)
- Observation:
- Nifty’s Current Price is at 22828.55 and the RSI value is 48.35
- Price < 20 EMA & RSI < 50 = Bearish
- My View: Downtrend
1.3 Intraday Trend – Short-Term Outlook
- Time Frame: 15 min
- Indicators Used: 20 EMA,
- Check for:
- The current NIFTY50 Price is at 22844.50 and 20 EMA is at 22805.41
- All candles closed above 20 EMA indicating a Short-term bullish attempt.
- EMA holding as support indicating buyers trying to take control
- My View: The market is recovering, but cautiously
Final Bias for the Week: Bearish
Identify Support and Resistance Zones
Time Frame: 1D
- Previous Week High: 22923.90
- Previous Week Low: 21743.65
- Major Support Zones: 21,740 – 21,970
- Major Resistance Zones: 23,750 – 23,870
- Gap-Down:
- April 4 Close: ₹22,904.45
- April 7 Open: ₹21,758.40
- News Reason: US Import Tariff Increase
- Interpretation: The market panic gap — adds to bearishness
- Partial Gap-Up (Mild Recovery):
- April 9 Close: ₹22,399
- April 11 Close: ₹22,695
- News Reason: China’s counter-tax response (stabilized market)
- Interpretation: Buyers returning but not fully confident yet
- Gap to Watch (Resistance): ₹22,900 – ₹21,758 (Unfilled — may act as resistance on upside bounce)
- The market is bearish, with a huge unfilled gap-down that may act as resistance.
- There’s some recovery, but no breakout strength yet.
- Better to design bearish-biased strategies like Bear Call Spreads or a wider Iron Condor.
Options Chain & OI Analysis
- Index Analyzed: NIFTY
- Expiry Date: 17 April 2025
- Highest Call OI (Resistance): 23,000 (52,817)
- Highest Put OI (Support): 22,800 (34,056)
- PCR (Put/Call Ratio): Below 1 (Bearish)
OI Shift Observations:
- Strongest Support Zone: 22,800 PE (+30,316 OI)
- Strongest Resistance Zone: 23,000 CE (Highest OI, slight Put confusion)
- ATM Strikes (22,900) have high OI on both sides, suggesting a range-bound setup
Conclusion: Likely Range: 22800 to 23000
- The market may consolidate between 22,800 and 23,00
- IV is moderate → Iron Condor is ideal
- Avoid setting legs too close to 22,800 PE (strong support)
Volatility & Premium Analysis
- Implied Volatility (IV): Medium (21%)
- Premiums ATM (CE & PE): at 29000 ATM – 235.00 (CE), 243.95 (PE)
- Premiums OTM (Iron Condor Legs):
- Sell CE: ₹141.40, Buy CE: ₹80.80
- Sell PE: ₹165.00, Buy PE: ₹133.40
Ideal Setup When IV is High: Iron Condor / Straddle Ideal Setup When IV is Low: Credit Spread
Paper Trading Setup (Neostox)
Iron Condor Setup
- Sell CE: 23100 @ ₹141.40
- Buy CE (Hedge): 23300 @ ₹80.80
- Sell PE: 22700 @ ₹165.00
- Buy PE: 22500 @ ₹133.40
- The net premium received:
- (141.40−80.80)+(165.00−133.40)=₹92.20perlot
- Lot Size (NIFTY): 50
- Total Credit: ₹92.20 × 50 = ₹4,610
- Max Profit: ₹________
- Max Loss: Worst-case loss = Difference between strikes (200) – Net Premium
- =200–92.20=₹107.80×50=₹5,390
- Range (Breakeven): ₹22,607.80 to₹23,192.20
- Reason for Setup:
- Market bias: Bearish to Sideways
- High resistance at 23,000; strong support at 22,800
- IV is moderate, perfect for Iron Condor
- Safe, range-bound setup with limited risk and reward
- Unfilled gap and news uncertainty create ideal theta decay opportunity
Review After Expiry Day
Big move! A gap-up opened on Tuesday with 537 points high from 22831 to 23368.
So, I analyzed the Option Chain again and changed my strategy.
Leg | Strike | Action | Entry | Exit | P&L |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
CE | 23,500 | Sell | ₹44.90 | ₹25.15 | +₹1,429.90 |
CE (Hedge) | 23,700 | Buy | ₹16.55 | ₹10.05 | –₹536.30 |
PE | 23,300 | Sell | ₹90.45 | ₹94.20 | –₹340.37 |
PE (Hedge) | 23,100 | Buy | ₹37.20 | ₹32.20 | –₹426.57 |
- 💰 Gross P&L: ₹126.66
- 🧾 Brokerage + Taxes: ₹420
- ❌ Net Result: –₹293.34 Loss
📅 Holding Period:
- Entry: 15 April 2025, 1:16 PM
- Exit: 15 April 2025, 2:42 PM
- ⏱️ Held for ~1.5 hours
💡 Why I Exited Early:
I wish I could say I exited with discipline. But here’s what happened:
❌ Emotional Mistakes I Made:
- I saw green profit and panicked into the exit, ignoring charges.
- I was blinded by P&L, not by rational analysis.
- I felt FOMO: “What if my profits vanish?”
- I ignored the actual net result after the charges.
- I didn’t understand that theta decay (time value loss) works better earlier in the week, not when you start on Tuesday for a Thursday expiry — the time was too short to help this strategy work.
🧠 What I Learned This Week:
- ✅ Emotion management is more important than any indicator.
- ✅ Green numbers are not profit — charges matter!
- ✅ Theta decay is your friend as an option seller — but only if you give it time (start early in the week).
- ✅ Never trade blind. Plan exit strategy before entering.
🔁 What I’ll Do Next Week:
- ⏳ Plan trades on Monday, not midweek.
- 📝 Write exit rules in advance.
- 💵 Factor in charges before celebrating profit.
- 😌 Avoid panic exits — wait for confirmation, not emotion.
Final Notes for Readers:
This article is part of my weekly option-selling series using real-time paper trading. I follow a systematic approach with clear logic and discipline. If you want to master selling options, follow (this is not a recommendation) this journey weekly and try replicating it on paper. Once confident, you can shift to real trades!
Let me know your thoughts in the comments! Share your trades or doubts below!
Follow my journey. Learn. Practice. Profit.
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